















GREETINGS FROM
ALL PICTURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED FROM THIS
TRACKCHASING TRIP AT WWW.RANLAYRACING.COM
I WOKE UP IN
PEOPLE/STRATEGY/TRAVEL
NEWS
The Strategy
Today, October 11, is a big day for me.
It’s the one day each year that I actually work. Yes, I rebalance my retirement
portfolio. You see I no longer work for
money. I did work for money after I
completed my education for a period of 30 years. That seemed like long enough to me.
However, when you no longer work for money you need enough “in the bank” to cover your expenses for the rest
of your life. Now I don’t have very
extravagant tastes. If I can afford a
race ticket and maybe a track hot dog, without having to work for a living then
I’ll be happy. If I can squeeze in a
country club membership, luxury cars, oceanfront mansion, a few international
vacations each year and all of the things my wife would ever want then so much
the better.
Why do I include this information in the strategy section of the
Trackchaser Report? Well, I think there
are a large number of folks that think pretty much as I do. Yes, they would like to figure out how to not
have to go to work every day. They want
to have enough money to live on regardless of whether their tastes include just
a race ticket and a hot dog like me or a chilled bottle of Dom Perignon and a
thick slice of brie.
Today’s strategic focus is on investing whatever amount of money you
bring with you into retirement. You need
to have that money grow during your retirement years for several reasons. First, if you retire as I did at age 53, your
IRS life expectancy likely predicts you will live another 30 years. You might live longer and you might not. Secondly, you’re going to be withdrawing
money as you go along. It’s a bit like
taking sips from a glass of water. Eventually,
if you take enough sips without adding any more water, your glass will be
empty. Finally, in the future “stuff” will cost more than it does today. You’re going to want more “stuff” so you had better be prepared.
In 1970 I bought a brand new 1970 Ford Mustang. That car cost me about $3,000. Today a Mustang similar to the one I bought
costs about 8-10 times that much. In 1972,
Carol and I paid the princely sum of $2.75 per person so each one of our
wedding guests could enjoy a sitdown buffet at the Holiday Inn (now a Kohl’s
Department Store) in
So……now you go into retirement. Your retirement stash may be $50,000 or
$500,000 or $5 million dollars. You’ve
decided you don’t have to “work for the man”
anymore. Good for you!
Let’s say you retired with $500,000.
That’s pretty good. Actually,
it’s a lot better than most. You decided
that with the earnings on your retirement nest egg, you could withdraw enough
to live on each month for the rest of your life without running out of
money. Again, good for you.
At some point, you’re going to have to decide how to invest that
money. You could put it under the
mattress. That way when the stock market
goes down to zero, you’ll be safe. Bad
idea! Your house might burn down, then
where would you be? Maybe your house
won’t burn down, but you’ll still go broke because of inflation. You have to invest your money so it will grow
over time. But where and how do you
invest?
You could put your money in the bank.
Maybe, buy a C.D. (certificate of deposit). You know the bank will guarantee your
interest rate. You can’t beat a
guarantee, can you? Well, there’s a
price for such a guarantee. The bank
pays you a lower rate than you could likely invest your money for elsewhere. That’s the premium you pay for getting a
guarantee. As folks get older, they get
more financially conservative.
People who are 70 years old might think they need to have financial
guarantees, like CDs, to sleep well at night.
Unfortunately, or fortunately for that matter, life expectancies for
people who have already lived to be 70 years old, would be about 90 years
old. With 20 more years to live, this
would not be a time to be so conservative and put all of your money in CDs. You have all read about how difficult many
senior citizens had it when interest rates went down and these folks could only
reinvest their money in CDs that paid half or less of what they used to earn.
Probably the next logical financial step would be to buy bonds. Companies issue bonds when they want to raise
money to build their businesses. If you
own a bond, then you are a lender. You
have lent your money to some institution with the promise that you will get a
certain rate of return as well as the money (your principle) that you
originally invested back. You can buy
short-term bonds (like a year) or long-term bonds (like 30 years). If you hold the bonds until they mature, and
the institution doesn’t go out of business, you will get the promised rate of
return every period and your initial investment back at the end of the bond’s
maturity.
Over time (1926-98) intermediate government bonds have returned returned
9.0%. By the way,
There are many different groups of bonds based upon length of maturity
and credit worthiness of the companies issuing the bonds. There are short-term, intermediate-term,
long-term and junk bond groupings just to name a few.
You might also consider investing in the stock market. There are many ways to invest in the stock
market. You could buy mutual funds or
individual stocks. I prefer mutual
funds, but my son Jim is a strong advocate for buying individual stocks.
A mutual fund offers many advantages to the investor. Most mutual funds, except sector funds, give
you good diversification. The S&P 500
is an index of the 500 largest companies ranked by market capitalization
(number of shares outstanding times share price). Companies in the top 10 of the S&P 500
include firms like Exxon, General Electric and Wal-Mart. The company I retired from, Procter &
Gamble ranks about 12th in the S&P 500. The good thing about investing in an index
like this is that if Exxon goes belly-up, you have another 499 companies to
make up for the shortfall. The S&P
500 has achieved an average rate of return of 11.2% over the last 70 years or
so.
Two other advantages of mutual funds are that you get professional
management and low costs. You have
people who are trained to invest in the stock market and do it everyday. Somehow that seems better to me than my
listening to XM radio and deciding that because they have a number of stations
I like, they must be a good company.
Mutual funds can also invest money and trade stocks for a lot less than
I can. They invest large sums of money
and get quantity discounts because of their clout. As an example, my largest mutual fund holding
charges me just 0.15% per $1,000 invested per year. That is an annual charge of just $1.50 per
$1,000 or $15 per $10,000 to manage my money for an entire year. This includes all trading expenses,
management fees, everything!
Another broad asset class would be
By the way, you might ask why I used the 1926-1998 historical periods. Actually, it’s the last time I looked up the
data. The market has gone down and then
gone up since 1998, but not enough to materially affect these broad rate of
return averages.
Another major stock asset class is International stocks. These are stocks of companies headquartered
outside of the
You could also buy gold, invest in real estate or buy a company. I’ve never been much for buying gold, and
feel my house covers the real estate bet.
Buying a company doesn’t sound like a good idea to me, because that
sounds like work all over again.
Before I go any further, I will admit that I have some very smart people
reading what I’m writing about here.
Therefore, I’ll put in this disclaimer.
What I’ve described above does not pretend to cover everything in the
world about this topic. However, the
flight from
If you want more definitive documentation, I highly recommend the book, The
Intelligent Asset Allocator, by William Bernstein. He describes what I am telling you in greater
detail and with much more documentation.
Let’s cut to the chase. Here’s
the bottom-line. Today, October 11, I
have to go to work. I have to look at
the eleven Vanguard mutual funds that I own.
Here they are:
Stock Funds
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund
Vanguard
Vanguard
Vanguard Explorer Fund
Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund
Bond Funds
Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Fund
Vanguard Short-term Bond Index Fund
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade Fund
Vanguard Long-term Bond Index Fund
Vanguard High Yield Corporate Fund
My investment goal is to have 65% of my retirement money spread over the
stock funds and 35% spread over the bond funds.
This will give me the return advantages of the stock market and the
stability features of the bond market.
At the end of each year, and that means as soon as I get off this
airplane, I have to “rebalance” the
portfolio. Let me explain. Let’s say I had $100,000 invested. To meet my goal $65,000 would be in the stock
funds and $35,000 would be in the bond funds.
Also, let’s say that the stocks improved by 25% and the bonds increased
by 5% during the past year. The stocks
would now be worth $81,250 and the bonds would be worth $36,750. My total portfolio would now be worth
$118,000. That would be a good thing!
However, now that the stocks are valued at $81,250, they make up up 69%
of the portfolio, which is more than my objective of 65%. Conversely, the bonds now make up only 31% of
the portfolio, which is less than my goal of 35%.
Even though when I land I want to get over to the Cricket Arena as soon
as I can for the Arena Racing mini-cup show, I must stop and act. I must call my Vanguard rep and sell some
stock fund shares and buy some bond fund shares.
Yes, I must sell the stuff (stock funds) that’s been doing well and buy
the stuff (bond funds) that been doing less well. As least I will be selling the stock funds at
higher prices and buying the bond funds at lower prices. That’s a good thing.
The reason there is a need for rebalancing is a statistical concept
called “Regression to the mean.” Nothing good happens forever and nothing bad
happens forever. It’s just like in
golf. If you are a 10 handicap and you
start off with five birdies in a row, you are likely to fall back and play much
more representative of your normal ability.
Well, that’s about it. I ended up
selling shares from five of my funds and putting the proceeds of those sales
into the other six funds I own. This put
my portfolio ratio back in balance at 65% stocks and 35% bonds.
Long ago, I developed a program that would handle the number crunching
part of this very easily. I know in the
past I’ve told you that I only work two hours a year and that’s on October
11. I might be exaggerating some. It probably isn’t really two FULL hours.
If you’ve read this far, you’re obviously interested in the topic. If you’re interested in the topic, you better
go out and buy the Bernstein book. I
want you to enjoy a long and healthy retirement both fiscally and physically. I’m just happy you’re here to read the
Trackchaser Report and possibly get a tip or two. Of course, if you give me a tip or two on
whatever topic, I’ll share it with the broader group in the “Readers respond” section of the TR.
Anyway, the movie has ended. It’s
one of my favorites. I just checked my
pocket. I’ve got enough loose change for
a hot dog tonight and the Speed Channel is bringing me as their guest to the
races, so it’s going to be a very productive financial day. Good luck with your retirement planning!
The Trip
It is getting easier and easier to get up at 3:30 a.m. in
How’s this for a travel schedule over the past couple of months?
Aug. 4 – Fly to Salt Lake City – trackchasing – Utah & Idaho
Aug. 5 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 6 – Trackchasing
Aug. 7 – Home in
Aug. 8 – Home in
Aug. 9 – Fly to Minneapolis – trackchasing – Minnesota
Aug. 10 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 11 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 12 – Rained out in
Aug. 13 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 14 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 15 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 16 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 17 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 18 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 19 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 20 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 21 – Trackchasing –
Aug. 22 – Fly home to
Aug. 23 – Home in
Aug. 24 – Home in
Aug. 25 –
Aug. 26 –
Aug. 27 –
Aug. 28 –
Aug. 29 –
Aug. 30 –
Aug. 31 –
Sep. 1 –
Sep. 2 –
Sep. 3 –
Sep. 4 –
Sep. 5 – Fly home to San Clemente
Sep. 6 – Home in
Sep. 7 – Home in
Sep. 8 – Fly to Montreal – rainout in Quebec
Sep. 9 –
Sep. 10 –
Sep. 11 – Fly home to
Sep. 12 – Home in
Sep. 13 – Home in
Sep. 14 – Fly to
Sep. 15 – Trackchasing –
Sep. 16 – Trackchasing –
Sep. 17 – Fly home to San Clemente
Sep. 18 – Home in
Sep. 19 – Home in
Sep. 20 – Home in
Sep. 21 – Home in
Sep. 22 – Fly to Wichita, KS – trackchasing Kansas
Sep. 23 – Trackchasing –
Sep. 24 – Trackchasing –
Sep. 25 – Fly home to
Sep. 26 – Home in
Sep. 27 – Home in
Sep. 28 – Home in
Sep. 29 – Fly to Salt Lake City, UT – trackchasing Utah
Sep. 30 – Fly home to San Clemente
Oct. 1 – Home in
Oct. 2 – Home in
Oct. 3 – Home in
Oct. 4 – Fly to Toronto, Canada – trackchasing Ontario
Oct. 5 – Fly to Chicago, trackchasing Wisconsin
Oct. 6 – Fly home to San Clemente
Oct. 7 – Fly to
Oct. 8 - Trackchasing – New Hampshire
Oct. 9 - Trackchasing –
Oct. 10 - Fly home to San Clemente
Oct. 11 - Fly to
Now that’s why I need a diversified portfolio that will produce returns
large enough to pay for this travel schedule.
The People
First, I want to wish our oldest son a happy 32nd
birthday. Happy birthday, J.J.
Tonight I had the pleasure of being a guest at the races courtesy of the
Speed Channel. Special thanks to Steve
Shaw, Speed’s Wind Tunnel producer for meeting up with me for an evening of
indoor racing. Steve and I have been
working on a “Trackchaser” TV pilot. A couple of our trackchasers have been able
to view our work and the feedback is good.
You never know where it might lead.
Great seeing you Steve and nice to see Sam again.
RACE TRACK STATS:
CRICKET ARENA,
This was my 30th lifetime
track to see in
Tonight was my 127th
track of the season. That number was the
season total I had in 2004, which established a season-long record at that
time. During 2005, I had 157 tracks by
October 11, so I’m a long way from challenging that record this year.
RACE TRACK NEWS:
CRICKET ARENA
Tonight was a fun night on many levels.
It was great being a guest of the Speed Channel. This allowed me to see some great behind the
scenes aspects of this older indoor arena.
It was also fun to see NASCAR stars such as Tony Stewart (boo!), Denny
Hamlin, J.J. Yeley and Kyle Busch race these little cars.
I arrived at the arena at 5:30 p.m.
The races weren’t scheduled to start until 7 p.m. The road signs directed me to the “
Fans weren’t admitted into the arena until 6 p.m. so there was quite a
bit of milling around outside the place when I arrived. It looked to me like they were going to have
a really big crowd. I even saw a ticket
scalper in the parking lot with his telltale sign that read “need tickets” on one side and “have tickets” on the other.
I was also impressed by the number of “credentials”
that were being distributed. The race
was sponsored by Interstate Batteries.
They had a huge lime green limo decorated in their NASCAR #18 colors. The entire scene reminded me a of NASCAR
race. I was glad I already had my ticket
arrangements taken care of.
Soon I met up with Steve Shaw, my Speed Channel friend. He surprised me with a beautiful looking “Speed Channel” shirt. It’s black, red, and buttons down the
front. Thanks, Steve!
I’ve seen the Arena Racing group run in both of their indoor facilities
up in
The Cricket Arena is nearly identical to the arenas used in
With my Speed Channel credentials, I had full run of the place. This allowed me to explore what seemed like
endless tunnels, many of which served as a backstage pit area for the mini-cup
race cars. We were even treated to
dinner, gratis of course, in the media room.
The Arena Racing group has a pre-race pit party where fans are allowed
into the center of the track where the cars and drivers are. There were hundreds of people taking
advantage of this opportunity. I met
track announcer, Mark Potter, and told him about my trackchasing. He was impressed. He’s a big guy and looks a lot like
trackchasing’s Rick Young. Mark was
heard to say, “1,118. Wow!”
He remembered me from
Heat races are run in the afternoon of shows like this without normal
spectators. In the evening, four feature
events of 50 laps each race. That’s
another promotional plus for the spectators.
Four 50 lap races are plenty. There
is no need to subject fans to qualifying races.
The tracks that run features only all seem to do well. Why don’t more people do it that way?
Washington Redskins coach, Joe Gibbs, is behind the expansion of Arena
Racing. He is also the NASCAR owner for
cars driven by Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and J.J. Yeley. Look for Yeley to be fired one of these
days. There have been very few primarily
dirt open wheel drivers really succeed in NASCAR. Stewart is about the only one.
Those three drivers were racing tonight in car’s that looked just like
their larger NASCAR brethren. Kyle Busch
was driving but not in a car that looked anything like his Kellogg’s
Chevy. NASCAR’s Mike Wallace’s daughter
was also racing tonight. There was even
one driver racing who was 74 years old.
He told the crowd it was his first ever race!!
Since we were in
I was looking forward to some great racing, but was minorly
disappointed. The races tonight were not
as good as those in
All four of the scheduled feature events were 50 laps. J.J. Yeley led the first one before crashing
out. Kyle Busch went on to win. Denny Hamlin broadslid through the turns to
win feature #2.
The third feature was very entertaining.
Tony Stewart was in a bright orange Home Depot sponsored #20 car. He started fifth out of about 12 cars. He passed several cars but got caught up in wrecks,
which put him to the back twice. With
about 10 laps to go he tried a slide job on one of the Arena Racing locals and
didn’t quite clear him. This caused the local
to catch Tony’s right rear and spin him into the wall.
On the restart, Tony started next to last and the local driver was
behind him. When the green flag flew
Tony slowed at the starting line and let the local driver pass him. Stewart then pulled in behind the local
driver, accelerated hard and drove him directly into the turn one wall. Any
This totally destroyed the local driver’s car. Stewart’s car was heavily damaged but he was
able to restart with a few laps to go and then spin out his car owner, J.D.
Gibbs who was also racing tonight. The
crowd loved this. I didn’t.
After the race, Stewart admitted spinning himself out. Then he went on to say the other guy hit him
three times after that running down the straight away. “I guess my one
hit more than made up for his three,” was what “Tony
the tiger” concluded. Earnhardt
Sr. would wreck people and just give that
Following the third feature, I decided to hit the road. I had been at the arena for four hours. It’s too bad the crowd didn’t get to see the
real arena racing with many fewer yellow flags.
It was a major plus seeing the NASCAR drivers race on a one-eighth mile
high banked steel track in 13 horsepower cars that can race at speeds
approaching 100 M.P.H. That was fun.
WEATHER
CONDITIONS
It was 80 degrees when I landed in
RENTAL CAR
UPDATE:
I’ll be going with another National Rental
Car Racing
Wednesday total driving miles – 122
LIFETIME
TRACKCHASER STANDINGS UPDATE:
These worldwide trackchasers are
within 100 tracks (plus or minus) of my current trackchaser total.
1. Randy Lewis,
2.
Guy Smith, Effort,
3.
Rick Schneider –
4.
Gordon Killian, Sinking Spring,
5.
Andy Sivi,
6.
Allan Brown,
7.
Ed Esser,
I’m having a difficult time putting
Guy Smith a lap down (50 tracks). He’s
hanging on but I’m about ready to use the chrome horn if he won’t move over.
* Warning, you are within 50 tracks
of being removed from this list.
** Special exemption.
Other notables
These worldwide trackchasers are
within 10 tracks (plus or minus) of Carol’s current trackchaser total.
34.
Johnny Gibson,
35. Carol Lewis,
36.
Sammy Swindell,
2006
TRACKCHASER STANDINGS
1. Randy Lewis,
2.
Ed Esser,
3.
Mike Knappenberger,
4.
Roland Vanden Eynde,
5.
Paul Weisel,
6.
Guy Smith, Effort,
7.
Allan Brown,
8.
Roger Ferrell,
9. Carol Lewis,
10. Pam Smith, Effort,
LIFETIME
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSITY STANDINGS
2006 (current – 10/11/06)**
1. Gordon Killian, Sinking Springs,
2. Randy Lewis,
3. Allan Brown,
**Lifetime NGD results could be
affected by current track counting proposals
2005 (final)
1. Gordon Killian, Sinking Springs,
2. Allan Brown,
3. Randy Lewis,
Thanks for reading about my
trackchasing,
Randy Lewis
#1 Trackchaser Living West of the
There is no empirical truth that
reading the Trackchaser Reports makes you any smarter, but it does give your
brain a workout.
CUMULATIVE TRAVEL DISTANCES:
AIRPLANE
RENTAL CAR -
Douglas International Airport,
Charlotte,
TRACK ADMSSION
PRICES:
Cricket Arena – Free ($6 parking)
Some of my standings data comes from
trackchaser.com
It’s the south baby. Why don’t y’all come on down!
992.
Watermelon Capital
993.
Cross Roads Motorplex (asphalt oval), Jasper,
994.
995.
Qualcomm Stadium,
996.
997.
998.
Thunderbowl Speedway of
999.
Cross Roads Motorplex (dirt oval), Jasper,
1,000. Auburndale Kartway,
1,001.
1,002. Speedworld Speedway,
Surprise,
1,003. Lowe’s Motor
1,004.
1,005.
1,006.
1,007.
1,008.
1,009.
1,010.
1,011.
1,012.
1,013. East
1,014. Margarettsville Speedway,
1,015. Sunny South Raceway,
1,016.
1,017. Coldwater Raceway,
1,018.
1,019. Ballymena Raceway,
1,020.
1,021.
1,022. Mendips Raceway,
1,023. Oval Raceway,
1,024.
1,025. Southside Speedway,
1,026. Motor Mile
1,027. Wythe
1,028. Summit Point Raceway, Summit
Point Circuit, Summit Point, West Virginia - April 30
1,029. Old Dominion
1,030. Shenandoah Speedway,
1,031.
1,032. Empty Jug,
1,033.
1,034.
1,035. Motocross 338,
1,036.
1,037.
1,038.
1,039. Blackhawk Farms Raceway,
1,040. The
** Angell Park Speedway, Sun Prairie,
1,041. Park Jefferson
1,042. Superior
1,043. Brainerd International
Raceway,
1,044. Canby
1,045.
1,046. Tri-State
1,047.
1,048.
1,049. The Bullring at